Japanese Invaders the Play in 149th Derby, Mage a Live Longshot
Kentucky Derby Picks
Churchill Downs, Race 12, Saturday, May 6, 2023
- Mandarin Hero
- Derma Sotogake
- Forte
- Mage
Crazy days leading up to the 149th Kentucky Derby. Favorite Forte galloping with a 3/4 shoe on Friday and four late scratches that included two of our favorite horses. There are still lots of long shots to pick from, but we’re going in heavy on the Japanese runners.
Forte (3-1) is the logical morning-line favorite based on five straight graded stakes wins going all the way back to the Hopeful Stakes (G1) in September at Saratoga, a streak that also included the Breeders Cup Juvenile (G1) and most recently the Florida Derby (G1).
Two-time Derby-winning trainer Todd Pletcher and top jock Irad Ortiz, Jr. also add luster for the Forte crowd, who will likely bet him into underlay status at post time. If Forte gets a decent trip, he should win, but he does have a few knocks against him. His Beyer Speed Figures are going the wrong way, and he took a bad step (shared in a video on Twitter) while training at Churchill Downs.
Is that enough to get him beat? Who knows, but it’s certainly enough to go looking for a better price.
We originally liked tough guy Practical Move and the improving Skinner off their first and third-place finishes in the Santa Anita Derby (G1), but both of those horses were scratched due to elevated temperatures. The fortune cookie bonus is that the horse who finished second by a nose in the Santa Anita Derby, Mandarin Hero (20-1), now draws into the field and he’ll be our top pick.
After years of trying, the Japanese runners finally broke through the North American high-class win barrier in 2021 with a pair of Breeders’ Cup wins. More recently, Japanese horses finished 1-3-4-5 in the $20 million Saudi Cup and won both the $12 million Dubai World Cup and the $6 million Dubai Sheema Classic. They also won the $1 million UAE Derby (G2) in March with Kentucky Derby entrant Derma Sotogake.
Think they’ve figured out how to win the big races yet? You bet they have.
Only four Japanese horses have ever run in the Kentucky Derby, and they have yet to make a dent, with their best finish being 6th with Master Fencer in 2019. Last year their Crown Pride finished 13th. But this year, they’re not only building on recent international successes, they’re also bringing better horses to the show.
