Liberal Arts the Pick to Upset in Lexington Stakes
Lexington Stakes, Keeneland, Race 10, Saturday April 13, 2024
Purse: $400,000 Distance: 1 1/16-Miles Surface: Dirt
Lexington Stakes Picks
1. Liberal Arts
2. The Wine Steward
3. Encino
Longshot: Footprint
Potential Steal Threats if Loose: Hades, Lucky Jeremy
Lexington Stakes Analysis
Liberal Arts (4-1) has an upset chance in this year’s Lexington Stakes for more than one reason, including the fact that top jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. is taking over from Tyler Gaffalione.
Liberal Arts won the Street Sense (G3) at Churchill Downs last year and came back off the layoff to finish a willing third in the Southwest Stakes (G3) at Oaklawn Park after being steadied on the first turn.
He then finished a troubled sixth beaten 10 ¾-lengths in the Arkansas Derby (G1) against a better field than he’ll meet in the Lexington. He was full of run early in that race with nowhere to go while steadying on the first turn and then checked between horses early on the backstretch and dropped well back. He then made a run around the final turn but predictably flatted out in the stretch.
We’re expecting a much cleaner trip from post 9 in the Lexington with Irad up, and it may just be a question of whether he has enough talent. He should be able to run in the range of 90 Beyer Speed Figure with only slight improvement, which would fit perfectly here, and there are certainly more than enough reasons to take a shot on his horse at a decent price.
The Wine Steward (5/2) is the morning-line favourite for the Lexington and deservedly so, but he is coming into the race off a six-month layoff. He’s only half a length away from being undefeated in four starts, having lost the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) in his fourth lifetime start after a hard-fought battle with Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) third-place finisher Locked.
The Wine Steward has proven class, he owns the top Beyer Speed Figure in the field at 92, his works have been good, he’s proven over the surface, and his trainer wins at 17% off a long layoff. He usually sits just off the pace, and if he can stalk a duel from the inside, he looks like he has a legitimate shot to win at fair odds.
Hades (7/2) looked good on the front end putting away an unfit Fierceness to win the Holy Bull (G3) at Gulfstream Park two starts ago but came back with an uncomfortable trip stuck behind a slow pace in the Florida Derby (G2) and threw in the towel early on the final turn, fading to fifth and finishing 19 ¾-lengths behind Fierceness.
Hades gets blinkers-on for this race, and a rider switch to Jose Ortiz, both of which could help him get on or near the lead over the speed favouring Keeneland surface. In that case, he would be expected to run better, but his last race certainly doesn’t inspire confidence.
Encino (5-1) is a neck away from being undefeated. He lost his first lifetime start before coming back to win two in a row including the John Battaglia Memorial at Turfway Park in his most recent start, in which he defeated subsequent Bluegrass Stakes (G1) third-place finisher Epic Ride winner after an outside trip from post 12.
Encino has a shot to get into the Kentucky Derby if he can win this race, but we’re wondering if he might be coming from too far off the pace. It’s also his first time on a dirt surface, but his pedigree says that should be okay. He came with a long, sustained rally to win the Battaglia, but he’ll need an even better rally to win this. Not out of it, but he’ll need a perfect trip behind a duel or at the very least a fast pace.
Lucky Jeremy (8-1) is another interesting entrant in the Lexington who comes out of tough races. A winner of the Riley Allison Derby in his first start as a 3-year-old at Sunland Park, he came back to finish third in the Sunland Derby (G3) after dueling with winner Stronghold in more than one part of the race including the stretch drive, before final succumbing to that subsequent Santa Anita Derby (G1) winner.
In his most recent start, Lucky Jeremy again made the lead and got a decent trip inside up front before tiring to finish fifth in the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) going 1 1/8-miles over the synthetic at Turfway Park. He now cuts back a sixteenth of a mile for the Lexington and switches back to dirt. Breaking from post 10, he’ll likely be sent for the lead and he might just get it. The more likely scenario is that he’ll end up dueling outside of Hades, but he is a game sort, and he could negate the chances of that rival before tiring in the stretch.
If the race runs up as it should on paper (does that ever happen?), with Hades dueling inside Lucky Jeremy, that should set the race up for the classier horses who can sit just behind the duel, which include The Wine Steward and Liberal Arts.
The Wine Steward is the logical choice, Liberal Arts is the trip/jockey switch horse, while either Hades or Lucky Jeremy could go a long way if able to shake loose early on what is likely to be a speed favouring surface. Watch the early races just to see how the track is playing.
We’ll take a shot on Liberal Arts to win and place and hope The Wine Steward isn’t quite fit enough off the layoff, with Encino rallying into third. We’ll also take Liberal Arts in extra exotics with the two speed horses, Hades and Lucky Jeremy, just in case one of them gets loose.
Go get ‘em!
