THE PLAYERS Championship Sleeper Picks and Predictions: Henley Fits the Bill

All eyes will be on TPC Sawgrass for the 50th edition of The Players Championship this week, and the best of the best are at the top of the golf odds lists.

There’s never been a back-to-back winner at The Players, so defending champion and last week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational champ Scottie Scheffler is eyeing history and also carrying added confidence after seeing more putts hit the bottom of the cup during his runaway victory at Bay Hill. Scheffler is the deserving betting favorite in The Players Championship odds, with Rory McIlroy, Xander Schauffele, Viktor Hovland, and Justin Thomas rounding out a second tier of favorites.

Because this field is so loaded, our sleepers and long shots include a trio of PGA Tour winners in solid form. I also recommend looking to the finishing-position markets to complement the outright bets.

2024 THE PLAYERS Championship sleeper picks

• Russell Henley to win outright (+4,500 at FanDuel)
• Nick Taylor to win outright (+12,500 at BetMGM)
• Andrew Putnam to win outright (+17,500 at bet365)

• Russell Henley Top 30 (+115 at bet365)
• Nick Taylor Top 40 (+170 at BetRivers)
• Andrew Putnam Top 40 (+170 at bet365)

Picks were made on March 12 at 2:30 p.m. ET.

2024 THE PLAYERS Championship and TPC Sawgrass key stats

The toast of Pete Dye designs, TPC Sawgrass rewards precise ball-striking, a crafty short game, and course-management acumen. It’s a Par 72 that stretches to just 7,275 yards with four Par 4s and four Par 5s. Additionally, the unique layout often prompts players to use less than driver on a number of the Par 4s. As a result, driving accuracy is at a premium far more than distance off the tee.

Water hazards defend 17 of 18 holes, and the course is littered with prohibitively placed bunkers. Add firm, fast greens protected by undulated runoffs to the thick rough, and experience and course knowledge are huge assets at TPC Sawgrass.

There’s no single path to victory at this track. Scottie Scheffler and Justin Thomas paced the field in true strokes gained tee-to-green for their respective 2023 and 2021 wins, while Cameron Smith finished first in true strokes gained putting and 68th in SG: tee-to-green during his 2022 win. However, gaining true strokes on approaches is a common theme for players who have finished well at the event, with the past three winners all finishing in the Top 5 in the metric.

Finally, while the elements have proven to wreak havoc, the weather forecast isn’t calling for substantial rainfall or unmanageable wind conditions.

• Strokes gained approach
• Strokes gained tee-to-green
• Driving accuracy
• Scrambling
• Bogey avoidance

2024 THE PLAYERS Championship sleeper predictions

Russell Henley to win outright (+4,500)

While Russell Henley might not fit the true definition of a long shot or sleeper, he’s priced well below the betting favorites and is a player in excellent form with consecutive Top 20s at The Players. Henley has played the weekend in 11 straight events and carded five Top 10s and another three Top 25s during this eight-month stretch.

He’s a statistical fit, too. Henley ranks seventh in driving accuracy, 14th in true strokes gained tee-to-green, 16th in true strokes gained around the green, and 25th in true strokes gained on approaches in this field across his past 48 measured rounds. He also gained true strokes on the field across the board en route to a T4 finish at the demanding Bay Hill last week.

The +4,500 FanDuel number also presents a slight edge over other leading sportsbooks. BetRivers has Henley priced as low as +3,300 to win this week, and the difference in the odds is a positive expected value of 33%.

Pick: Russell Henley to win outright (+4,500 at FanDuel)
Pick: Russell Henley Top 30 (+115 at bet365)

Nick Taylor to win outright (+12,500)

The 35-year-old Canadian is heading to TPC Sawgrass for the eighth time and is in the best form of his career. Nick Taylor has won twice in the past 10 months, and he’s gained true strokes on approaches in seven consecutive events to rank 10th in this field in the metric across his past 23 measured rounds.

Taylor also finished ninth in true strokes gained on approaches and 28th in true strokes gained tee-to-green in this event in 2021, and he finished T16 here in 2019. I’m also encouraged by Taylor ranking 19th in bogey avoidance and 27th in scrambling.

This is also an outlier +12,500 number through BetMGM. BetRivers is hanging +10,000 odds for Taylor to win, so we’re gaining a positive expected value of  26% with the BetMGM price. On the flip side, BetRivers offers a favorable +170 price for Taylor to finish Top 40.

Pick: Nick Taylor to win outright (+12,500 at BetMGM, 0.25 units)
Pick: Nick Taylor Top 40 (+170 at BetRivers)

Andrew Putnam to win outright (+17,500)

Andrew Putnam is a true long shot to win The Players this week, and his track record at TPC Sawgrass is awful. Still, his game fits what it takes to play well in this event, and bet365 has a huge number on his outright odds compared to other sportsbooks. 

He’s trading as short as +10,000 through Caesars, so there’s a positive expected value of 76% attached to the bet365 number. I’m also advising to bet on Putnam finishing Top 40 at +170 odds through bet365. 

Putnam ranks 20th in driving accuracy, 22nd in true strokes gained on approaches, and 34th in true strokes gained putting in this field across his past 43 measured rounds, and he’s coming off a solid T8 at Bay Hill last week. Additionally, he’s fifth in bogey avoidance and 13th in scrambling on tour this season.

Pick: Andrew Putnam to win outright (+17,500 at bet365, 0.25 units)
Pick: Andrew Putnam Top 40 (+170 at bet365)

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