Saul “Canelo” Alvarez (59-2-2, 39 KOs) vs. Jermell Charlo (35-1-1, 19 KOs)
When: Saturday, September 30, 2023
Where: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
TV: PPV
Weight Class: Super Middleweight World Title (168 Pounds)
Betting Odds: Canelo Alvarez (-385), Jermell Charlo (+265)—Odds by Bovada (You can bet the fight live-in-progress there!)
Fight Analysis:
Saul “Canelo” Alvarez defends his Super Middleweight Championship against current 154-pound unified champion Jermell Charlo in Las Vegas on September 30. Canelo is two wins removed from his light heavyweight title loss to Dmitry Bivol in 2022, only the 2nd loss in a 63-fight career that now spans back 18 years. Still only 33, Canelo is still big business, and this should be a huge fight in Vegas against a really credible opponent. Charlo, also 33, is coming off a KO win over Brian Castano in a rematch from their draw in 2021. This will be Charlo’s first appearance since May 2022.
A few things stand out about this pairing that perhaps don’t paint Charlo’s chances in the best light. First is that for a guy who has reigned at 154 pounds for seven years, his career progression has been painfully-slow, only now booking the really big fight. Despite good connections, he has been seemingly on the precipice of big things, along with his twin brother Jermall, without it ever coming to fruition. That doesn’t mean he can’t do it, but in the other corner is a guy who has taken on one big name after another. Say what you will about Canelo in terms of the favoritism he may have received or his sometimes-cagey matchmaking, but his ledger of opponents really puts Charlo’s to shame.
It’s also important to frame what Charlo is going to need to do to win this fight. We’ve never seen Alvarez all that close to being stopped, despite taking on the most dangerous fighters from several different weight classes. Now, Charlo is taking on a bigger fighter, and I don’t think a stoppage win for the challenger is all that viable of an option. And let’s face it, winning a decision against Canelo in Las Vegas isn’t the easiest thing in the world to do. Charlo might be in a position where he’s jumping up two weight classes and being put in a spot where he’s going to need to win eight rounds to get a draw.
About that weight business, this is a big jump for a longtime 154-pounder to take a shot at the 168-pound crown. Dimensions-wise, Charlo isn’t outsized very drastically, especially as it is he who holds a several-inch edge in both height and reach. But with Charlo having spent well over a decade in this weight class, while Canelo is taking on full-sized light heavyweights is a concern. Alvarez first made his bones at 154 pounds. And even if he’s probably pushing the limit, taking on guys the size of Bivol, 168 pounds would be his preferred weight if you had to identify an ideal landing spot. And while not long, he is, in fact, very robust and will be the bigger man in this fight.
