Michigan vs Washington CFP National Championship Game X-Factors: Polk High

While the Michigan Wolverines have been a consensus favorite in this national title matchup since the end of New Year’s Day, the more notable piece of the National Championship odds board may be the total. With the Washington Huskies’ high-profile offense going against Michigan’s top-tier defense, this total has hovered around 56 points all week.

That total is right in the gray area between a grinding but quality football game and an entertaining shootout.

There are a few players who should most determine which version we get Monday night, none of which will surprise you in the college football odds. If leaning toward expecting a shootout and an Over, then betting on their successes may provide another avenue toward profit as we preview the key players and their props before Washington vs Michigan on Monday, January 8.

If you’re looking for more content on this year’s big game, check out our Michigan vs. Washington predictions, our Michigan vs Washington props, and our Michael Penix Jr. odds spotlight for all your free college football picks!

CFP National Championship Game X-factors

J.J.’s Day

Both Washington and Michigan may have been too good this season to properly recognize their weaknesses this week. In this case, the Huskies have so often blown out opponents that they always knew when to expect desperation passing.

In eight of 14 games, Washington has led by multiple possessions at halftime. One of the exceptions was USC, prone to pass more than most teams regardless of the score. Across the season, Huskies’ opponents have thrown the ball 5.5% more than would usually be expected given game state, a numerical value to describe the sense of urgency imposed by trailing this particular Washington offense by multiple scores.

To put that more bluntly, nine times out of 14, the Huskies knew to defend the pass, and knowing that always makes life easier and a defense more successful.

That has skewed Washington’s defensive ratings against the pass, ranking No. 16 in the country in opponents-adjusted expected points added per opposing dropback, per cfb-graphs. It is a good pass defense, but it is not as good as that ranking suggests.

Michigan should be good enough to keep within a possession of the Huskies all night long, if not take an outright lead. And if so, that will force Washington to play balanced defense for a change.

Wolverines quarterback J.J. McCarthy has shown a strong arm in moments Michigan has needed it, including throwing for 221 yards against Alabama last week. If the Huskies have to defend the run as much as the pass, that should lead to open throwing lanes for McCarthy in Houston.

Prop: J.J. McCarthy Over 190.5 passing yards (-114 at FanDuel) 30% boost available

Penix airs out

Logically, there are two versions of a pocket for Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr. on Monday night.

Either Michigan puts Penix on his rear and subsequently builds a lead, forcing the Huskies to push the ball downfield all night long out of desperation, or Washington keeps Penix upright and he finds his targets downfield with that time, allowing him to entertain the country and build some gross numbers.

The former of those thoughts would showcase the defensive line that cost Alabama its title hopes, sacking Jalen Milroe six times for 49 yards. If this becomes Monday’s reality, then former Tide center Seth McLaughlin may enjoy some quiet redemption.

The latter of them would trust the best offensive line in the country, with Washington previously taking home the 2023 Joe Moore Award.

If you can correctly guess which pocket Penix will stand in, you can go ahead and place your bets on the spread accordingly. But regardless, Penix will throw.

Furthermore, much like Washington’s pass defense may be over-appreciated, so might Michigan’s. Opponents do not throw against the Wolverines very often — Bottom 10 in the country when factoring in game state — because their cause is already so lost. While the Huskies allowed opponents to stay just close enough to allow for desperate hopes, Michigan ground any delusional hopes out of most opponents, leaving them content to help run out the clock to end their misery.

Thus, the Wolverines’ No. 3 EPA pass defense rating may be a bit generous. If granting that thought, then either of Penix’s pockets should produce passing yards.

Prop: Michael Penix Over 291.5 passing yards (-115 at DraftKings) Profit boost available

Penix to Polk

Ja’Lynn Polk had two bad games. And somehow the world — and sportsbooks — forgot about his game-changing potential. 

Nominally Washington’s No. 3 receiver, Polk has still gained 1,122 yards through the air this season with nine touchdowns. And here’s the wrinkle, he didn’t catch a single pass in the Huskies’ final two regular-season games, dropping off the map somewhat at Oregon State and against Washington State.

But then, Polk erupted anew, catching five passes for 57 yards in the Pac-12 title game against Oregon and taking five catches for 122 yards and a score against Texas.

In the 12 games in which he caught at least one pass, Polk averaged 93.5 receiving yards.

He had two bad games. That was it.

Michigan would be wise to sell its defensive soul to slow Washington star Rome Odunze. Although Jalen McMillan is often seen as an NFL prospect more than Polk, the latter has showcased greater production than McMillan and is expected to reap the benefits of Odunze’s coverage.

And yet, both Odunze and McMillan have significantly higher receiving yards props than Polk does.

Let’s not wonder why Polk had two bad games. Just appreciate the value created now because he did.

Prop: Ja’Lynn Polk Over 50.5 receiving yards (-115 at DraftKings) Profit boost available