Looking at the Final Four and possible March Madness bracket choices as you conclude your March Madness gambling, most of your decisions have already been made. You found your way into the final games of your survivor competition by correctly picking two Final Four teams last weekend. That leaves you, at most, two remaining.
For your sake, I hope you have two remaining. Specifically, I hope you have not yet used the UConn Huskies or the Purdue Boilermakers.
As much as these thoughts will list the four remaining teams in the order that you should take them on Saturday, it will include overall thoughts on what purpose each could serve for your end goal.
Most conservative approach: Take Purdue on Saturday to lose to UConn on Monday.
Best contrarian approach: Take NC State on Saturday to lose to UConn on Monday.
Best Final Four March Madness survivor pool picks
1. Purdue Boilermakers
This is the conservative approach. This is your best chance at making money this weekend but your worst chance at not winning a pool outright.
The most likely thing to end this March Madness is UConn beating Purdue on Monday night. Now, note, that the most likely thing does not always happen. Personally, if the most likely thing at this point had ended the 2019 NCAA Tournament, yours truly would have won a survivor pool outright. Instead, Texas Tech had to go and upset Michigan State in the Final Four.
That is the cautionary tale. The most likely thing is only likely, not assured. Roughly speaking, there is a 70% chance the Boilermakers meet the Huskies on Monday night, at which point Purdue would be about a four-point underdog.
You will not be the only one in your pool setting up a path for UConn to beat Purdue on Monday night. That is the downside of betting on the most likely result: It will also most likely end in you pocketing a smaller chunk of the pot.
2. UConn Huskies
This is the most conservative of the contrarian approaches. This is your best chance at winning a significant share of your pool this weekend, though probably not the whole thing.
If UConn will be a four-point favorite on Monday, then it should have about a 65% chance of winning the national championship.
How sure is it that the Huskies will beat the Alabama Crimson Tide on Saturday? Obviously, they are going to play the game, but Pinnacle has UConn’s national championship odds at -193. Translating that into a rough percentage would put it at about 66%.
If you are so lucky as to still have both UConn and Purdue available in your survivor pool, take a look at who the other contestants can pick. You may realize everyone else has used the Boilermakers, and if you take them now, you are set up for a nice Monday evening.
More likely, you will see how many can still use UConn. Assume most preserve the Huskies to be their national championship pick. Now look at your pool’s prize size. Is a one-in-three chance at a greater share of that prize worth risking a two-in-three chance at a slimmer cut?
Only you can answer that, and not only because I do not know how many entries are left with what teams are available in a pool of what size, but also because you know what you want to pocket from this March Madness.
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3. North Carolina State Wolfpack
This is the most reasonable of the contrarian approaches. Whatever the NC State has been doing, it has been working. Should it have? No, but here we are.
That is a different conversation.
For these purposes, the item of note is that North Carolina State is “only” a nine-point underdog, compared to Alabama as an 11.5-point underdog. The Wolfpack’s hopes of springing this upset undoubtedly once again hinge on defensive 3-point variance.
Purdue has hit 40.6% of its 3s this season, No. 2 in the country. North Carolina State opponents have made just 23.9% of their 3s this tournament (28-of-117). Betting on the Boilermakers to shoot as badly as Marquette (4-of-31) did is a foolish choice on paper, but it was nearly as foolish in the Sweet Sixteen, and guess what? Marquette shot 4-of-31.
4. Alabama Crimson Tide
This is the riskiest contrarian approach. The only thing less likely than Alabama winning on Saturday would be North Carolina State beating UConn on Monday — which is why it makes sense to slot the Wolfpack a notch higher in these thoughts.
You may not have a choice. You may be down to Purdue and Alabama in your picks and there is a bounty of entries still alive in your pool. You need to pick a champion. So you take the Tide now.
If it were me, I would also invest in a UConn future. Then if it is Purdue vs. UConn on Monday night, you can get greedy with a Boilermakers +4 ticket.
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