The Montreal Alouettes and Toronto Argonauts meet Saturday for the East Division final at BMO Field. Kickoff is set for 3 p.m. ET (TSN/CFL+). Below, we analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Alouettes vs. Argonauts odds, and make our expert CFL picks and predictions.
The Alouettes rolled in the East semifinal last week, topping Hamilton 27-12 to easily cover as 3.5-point home favorites as the Under (48.5) connected. The Als actually trailed 3-1 heading to the 2nd quarter, and the 1st half was a dogfight. However, a 30-yard pass from QB Cody Fajardo to WR Austin Mack with just 44 seconds left before the break put the Als up for good.
The Argonauts earned the top overall seed and haven’t been in action since a 27-22 win over the Ottawa Redblacks on the road in the regular-season finale. Toronto won the final 4 matchups of the season while going 3-1 against the spread (ATS).
These teams last faced each other in Week 15 in Montreal, with the Argos coming away with a 23-20 win, although the Als covered the 6.5-point number. In fact, Toronto won all 3 meetings in the regular season while going 2-1 ATS. The Under cashed in the 2 most recent meetings after the total went high in the first encounter back in Montreal in Week 6.
Alouettes at Argonauts odds
Odds provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 7:31 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Alouettes +440 (bet $100 to win $440) | Argonauts -600 (bet $600 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Alouettes +10.5 (-110) | Argonauts -10.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 50.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Alouettes at Argonauts key injuries
Alouettes
- OL Sean Jamieson (knee) questionable
- WR Kaion Julien-Grant (shoulder) out
- DB Zach Lindley (head) out
- OL Pier-Olivier Lestage (knee) out
- DL Marcus Valdez (ankle) out
- WR Chandler Worthy (ankle) out
Argonauts
- RB Daniel Adeboboye (ankle) out
- DB Maurice Carnell IV (knee) out
- WR Kurleigh Gittens Jr. (hip) out
- WR Rajae’ Johnson (hand) out
- LB Daniel Kwamou (knee) out
- LB Henoc Muamba (knee) out
- DB Robert Priester (groin) out
Alouettes at Argonauts picks and predictions
Prediction
Argonauts 29, Alouettes 20
Moneyline
Toronto (-600) has been off a while, and it will either be tremendously efficient after a long rest, having healed all of the bumps and bruises, or it will be quite rusty to start.
I believe it will be the latter, as the Argos haven’t played meaningful football in over 2 weeks. It’s tough to turn it off and turn it back on, although this was easily the most electric team in the CFL during the regular season.
Still, you cannot risk 6 times your potential return on anybody.
PASS.
Against the spread
MONTREAL +10.5 (-110) looked really good last weekend against Hamilton, and it should be able to hold its own on the road against Toronto -10.5 (-110).
These teams know each other well, squaring off for the 4th time this season. While the Argos swept the 3 meetings, only 1 of the games was decided by double digits. After a lengthy layoff, I expect Toronto be a little sluggish out of the gate, which will keep Montreal in this one, too. Eventually, talent takes over and the Argos punch their ticket to the Grey Cup, but it won’t be as easy as the spread might indicate it should be.
Over/Under
UNDER 50.5 (-110) is worth a look, but it is going to be a close shave.
We saw the Under cash in the 2 most recent meetings between these teams in Weeks 14 and 15. In fact, Montreal cashed the Under in 7 of the previous 8 outings, while going a perfect 6-0 in the past 6 meetings against East teams.
While the Over has dominated for Toronto, going 4-1 in the final 5 outings, the Under is 8-1 in its past 9 November games. And the Under is 23-9-1 in the past 33 meetings with Montreal, too.
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